ABOUT MY FEDERAL SERVICE FOR MY COUNTRY (return to homepage)
FORECASTING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE US ECONOMY
AND ENERGY SECTORS TWENTY-FIVE YEARS INTO THE FUTURE
USING THE DOE EIA NATIONAL ENERGY MODELING SYSTEM
My NEMS forecast of advanced electricity generation by state:
High Fossil Energy Technology Case
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Below is an example of o ne of my NEMS forecasts of the cost-of-electricity under varied scenarios for the development of advanced fossil fuel electricity generating technologies with carbon sequestration.
COE = cost of electricity; IGCC is an Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle power plant;
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The USDOE Energy Information Administration ( EIA) was created by Congress in 1974 under Chapter 15 of the United States Code Section 761. In 1974, my hometown hero Congressman Harley O. Staggers Sr was the Chair of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and was instrumental in creating the EIA. |
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In 1977, he and President Carter created and funded the US Department of Energy. The EIA is an independent part the executive branch of our federal government. The EIA was created by Congress to operate completely independent of outside influences -- including the other Offices of US Department of Energy. I was the first federal employee trusted to use NEMS completely independent of the EIA. It took some time to gain the trust of the excellent economists, mathematicians and scientists at EIA, including Jeff Jones, Laura Martin, Dan Skelly, Paul Kondis, Andy Kydes. My first inquiry about running NEMS independently. How could I do that? With some help from my friends in the “little railroad town that could.”
Here’s a link to download the code for the first version of NEMS that I ran independently. Below is more information about my NEMS forecasts. |
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When I was using NEMS, I had access to maps and details of the electricity
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MY NEMS FORECASTS FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, VARIOUS OFFICES OF THE USDOE, THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Forecasting the Benefits of President George W. Bush’s Clear Skies Initiative : o Information about The Clear Skies Initiative A proposal I wrote in 2002 to start a NEMS Forecasting Team at theNETL o Today, the NETL has an entire Office using NEMS, the NETL Office of Systems Engineering & Analysis Scenarios for the DOE Working Group of the following organizations: o DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy o DOE Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory o DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory Forecasting the Benefits of Research and Development by the DOE Office of Fossil Energy Forecasting the Benefits of the Office of Fossil Energy High Technology Case
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ABOUT MY FEDERAL SERVICE FOR MY COUNTRY (Return to Homepage)
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